# Wagering on Organizational Plans By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2023-03-03 Humans believe there must be a grander plan or an order to the universe. This not only plays out in our personal lives but also in our work lives. Regardless of your beliefs, it might be worth questioning whether the place you work and the people in charge actually have any clue what they are doing. What is worse: knowing there is a master plan and being kept in the dark or thinking there is a master plan when really those in charge have no clue? Both options have negative elements. The first is a crisis of trust. You have faith the organization has a plan, so you blindly follow orders and directives. You may not know the grand plan, but you trust that the high-ups know better. Except we know that humans are flawed and easily corrupted when given power. Can these leaders and organizations be trusted on the level that people put their faith in God, nature, or physics? As a general rule of the human universe, I think one should err on the side of no. The second choice isn't really different from the first except now the organization is operating without any plan. They are just making things up as they go along. At least in the first scenario, the organization had a plan, but they just refused to tell you about it. However, as a worker who will constantly be in the dark either way, we cannot discern which scenario we are living in. Does the organization know what they are doing or not? They will not tell us as that puts them in jeopardy. If they don't know what they are doing and tell you about it, they risk revolt. If they have a plan and tell you about it, they risk critique. Instead of challenging this paradigm, the modern worker has universally accepted a version of Pascal's Wager as applied to organizational authority without knowing it. Seventeenth-century mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal argued that a rational person should live as if God exists because there was infinite upside (heaven, etc.) if God did exist and only finite downside (avoiding certain pleasures, etc.). Alternatively, living as if God did not exist when God did exist would result in infinite downside (hell, etc.) and only finite upside (doing whatever pleased you, etc.). Within an organization, most people live their work life as if the organization has a plan that can be trusted. After all, if they have a plan and we help them, we believe it will collectively benefit everyone. If they don't have a plan and we help them, we might still get promoted and benefit even if it's a shitshow. This seems reasonable and rational, but there are many flaws. Who is to say that the organization's plan is the best one for everyone? Certainly, many other plans exist. As a rational person, shouldn't you evaluate alternatives to maximize your benefit and the benefit of those you care about? Furthermore, is feigning that you believe in the organization's plan authentic? Is selling out something you really want to spend your life doing? Do not confuse the organizational version of Pascal's Wager as proof that an organizational plan exists and as a means to remove yourself as a citizen of humanity. It is merely a rational trick with economic game theory incentives. Your beliefs and actions extend beyond the rational and fall exclusively on your shoulders. #### Related Items [[Planning]] [[Thinking]] [[Beliefs]] [[Organization]] [[Management]] [[Solidarity]] [[Ethics]]