# The Purpose of Forecasting By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2022-11-06 There are two types of forecasting methodologies that are deeply rooted in how one views the world. The first method is to forecast based on activity. Doing something ten times should result in ten units of output. Thus, if you want more output, provide more inputs. This worldview is one where you can control your destiny. It is the standard reductionist, [[Top-down and bottom-up|bottom-up]], and [[Mind the technocratic gap|technocratic]] view. Think business revenue forecasts and government policies. The second method is to forecast based on systemic behavior. The way people and the universe behaves follows known paths and well-established models. You can try to accelerate or decelerate outputs, but the universe will move forward on its own. This worldview is one where the system behaves a certain way. Forecasting is not about changing the system but positioning yourself to where the system is going. Think stock markets and geopolitics. As an analyst, understanding these worldviews is critical. Neither is [[Good and Bad|good or bad]]. There are situations when one is more useful than the other ([[All Models are Wrong|all models are wrong, but some are useful]]), but it's rare to find someone willing to change their worldview. People embrace [[paradigms]] of thought as [[Heuristics|shortcuts]] to dealing with the endless complexity of the world. [[Analytics-Induced Anxiety|Personality]] and lived experiences play large roles in how people view the world. A great analyst recognizes this and finds ways to make progress anyways. This may mean personal progress like doing a bottom-up forecast when you believe it's wrong to earn enough money to afford a self-actualizing experience. Or, this may mean pushing the organization to be something greater by collaboratively shifting its paradigm. Beliefs are individual truths that are unprovable and ever-changing. Forecasting provides comfort and intention in the face of uncertainty. Aligning forecasting methodologies to the belief system of the stakeholder is a path to dealing with the existential anxiety of the unknown and making progress. Realizing this makes predictive analysis something entirely different. Numbers matter less, solidarity matters more. #### Related Items [[Analytics]] [[Forecasting]] [[Predictive Analytics]] [[Complexity]] [[Solidarity]]