# The Probability Assessment that Stole Christmas By:: [[Ross Jackson]] 2022-12-24 Right-wing media often decry that there is a “War on Christmas.” In their coverage of the topic, they complain that left-wing, communistic, atheists are attempting to destroy Christmas, and replace saying “Merry Christmas” with a generic, secular greeting of “happy holidays.” If the usage of “Merry Christmas” has declined and the use of “happy holidays” has increased, it could be the result of a relatively straightforward probability assessment of individuals rather than the result of ideological warfare. Only two probabilities are needed to explain much of what could be a significant change in holiday greetings from the early 1970s to today. Before the probabilities are presented, let’s assume that each person sincerely wants to give the people they meet the type of greetings that people would like. The greeting could be Merry Christmas to Christians, Happy Hanukkah to Jewish people, or happy holidays to agnostics and atheists. Assuming we know each other, it is relatively easy to give this sort of strategically aligned greeting. However, if we don’t know each other, it is “safer” to simply wish one a generic holiday greeting rather than a specific one. When in doubt, assume as little as possible. It is here that two probabilities could combine to explain a hypothetical reduction in the use of Merry Christmas as the dominant holiday greeting within the United States. The first probability covers how well we know our neighbors. A recent survey found that 57% of Americans say they know only some of their neighbors. Let’s say that in 1970 that number was as high as 90%. That decline in knowledge reduces one’s ability to strategically align a greeting to known individuals. The second probability is the decline in the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian. In the early 1970s, about 90% of Americans identified as Christian. Today that value is about 63%. If we know our neighbors 90% of the time, and 90% of our neighbors are Christian, one expects “Merry Christmas” to be used about 81% of the time. The remaining 19% of the time, one should expect to hear “happy holidays” as a hedge against those we don’t know or for those we know are not Christian. Today with the shift in underlying probabilities in which we know our neighbors 57% of the time and 63% are Christian, one expects “Merry Christmas” to be used about 36% of the time. Conversely, the greeting of happy holidays would be used about 64% of the time. In short, as we know fewer of our neighbors and fewer people identify as Christian because of these changes in underlying probabilities we should expect to hear “Merry Christmas” less frequently. That isn’t a war, it’s mathematical attrition. If there is a “War on Christmas,” it isn’t being conducted by left-wing, atheistic radicals. The switch to “happy holidays” can be explained more directly and simply by how little we know our neighbors, and the decline in the number of Americans who identify as Christians. Upon reflection, those two underlying probabilities might be more closely linked than they first appear. Christians are called to “love thy neighbor as thyself.” It would seem challenging to love those about whom we know nothing. For all those truly wanting an increase in the use of the greeting “Merry Christmas,” perhaps an inner focus on being a true neighbor would be more effective than lashing out against imagined persecution by radical leftists. #### Related Items [[Probability]] [[Statistics]] [[Society]] [[Politics]] [[Radicals]]