# The People and the Prediction By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2023-01-27 When predicting the future or forecasting where some metric will land at the end of the quarter, analysts spend a lot of time getting the math right. While important and the subject of courses, books, and endless research papers, we often do not ask ourselves what the response will be to the predicted outcomes. If we do consider the response versus the desired response, should we consider changing the prediction? For example, if the mathematical prediction shows a result will easily be obtained if the current work effort is sustained, does telling everyone we are going to hit the result cause people to keep working at the same rate or slow down? Similarly, if the prediction shows the hopelessness of the situation, should we show that number or indicate that miracles are possible and hope is still alive? There are many nuanced positions here that go well beyond mathematics. But, as the theory goes, you cannot observe a system without impacting it. The mere act of predicting and sharing that prediction could completely invalidate your prediction. This is the subject of many bedtime and Hollywood stories. Is the hero's fate sealed by the prediction of the wizard or does the prediction prevent the hero's downfall? All of this should make us wonder what the value of forecasting and predictions really are. By my estimation, they have two values. One is to provide comfort. The other is to provide motivation. If the prediction provides too much comfort or too much discomfort, it is demotivating to all involved. The sweet spot is somewhere in the middle as this sparks just enough [[motivation]] to think our actions in the world matter. Thus, finding purpose is the point of predictions and forecasting. This is a long way from the mathematical models we spend so much time studying in school to get perfect confidence intervals and p-values. #### Related Items [[Analytics]] [[Statistics]] [[Predictive Analytics]] [[Forecasting]] [[Purpose]] [[Organizational Analytics]] [[Society]]