# Sudden Systemic Changes By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2022-11-04 In systems thinking and complexity, there is an idea of sudden and unpredictable system state changes. Think revolutions, avalanches, or the straw that broke the camel's back. One small thing that normally has no impact on the system triggers a cascading systematic change. Intuitively, predicting that these changes will eventually occur isn't the challenge. We know that if we put an endless amount of straw on a camel's back that it will break. The challenge is predicting when these changes will occur because step changes in state are nonlinear, discontinuous, and appear to emerge out of nowhere. If you are facing the task of analyzing such a system, there are two simple approaches to embrace. First, explore what the system would look like after the state change occurs. Second, act accordingly to accelerate or decelerate the change. If the state change is positive, the best course of action is to keep piling on as it's nearly impossible to predict when the change will happen. We know that it is likely to happen, and that is the positive goal. If the state change is negative, do everything you can to stop accumulating the inputs. The camel's back won't break if you stop adding more pieces of straw. However, note that neither system has changed - only the inputs. Like a train, the tracks are laid. We can choose to accelerate and decelerate, and, if we are lucky, we can occasionally choose a new set of tracks to follow when given the opportunity. Understanding these system dynamics is useful when analyzing and tackling systemic issues such as poverty, climate, health, and geopolitics. Knowing that change will happen is often easy; knowing when that change will occur is hard or impossible. The key is understanding what that change will mean and whether you're willing to live with it. #### Related Items [[Analytics]] [[Systems Thinking]] [[Complex Systems]] [[Predictive Analytics]]