# Learning Through Disconfirmation By:: [[Ross Jackson]] 2023-02-16 It can be gratifying when life unfolds as one expects. Such situations strengthen our confidence in our ability to forecast. Sometimes expectations are based on complex analytic models. Other times the expectations are simply vague intuitions. In polarity thinking, if this type of situation is considered “good,” then a situation in which events unfold contrary to one’s expectations must be considered “bad.” Whereas this type of thinking is common, it fails to account for an important distinction. Things can be “good” or “bad” in terms of very different elements of consideration. Life unfolding contrary to one’s expectations might shake one’s confidence, but also could hold a learning opportunity. Such experience can help one make deeply held assumptions explicit. Through the process, one can identify new ways of thinking and understanding. New opportunities emerge. Depending on the situation a disconfirming situation can be jarring. One’s ego could be bruised. These things can combine to make analyzing the situation challenging. There might be an inclination to want to move on without dwelling on it. Such a response is understandably human. If one can transcend these limitations one will discover that some of the most interesting and valuable insights are derived from learning through disconfirmation. This is a type of learning that is especially difficult for organizations and those in the upper echelons to encourage or enact. #### Related Items [[Learning]] [[Forecasting]] [[Analytics]] [[Thinking]]