# Dark Predictions By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2024-07-03 A deep look into one's humanity exposes how dark, cruel, and ruthless we can be as a species. History contains horrific examples, but even private thoughts reveal what is possible. This represents just how bad things can be or become. When left unchecked, this darkness accelerates the inevitable ending of everything. The end of everything can't even be called nothingness because nothingness is meaningless without something. How, then, do we keep the darkness in check? Knowledge of what we are capable of, constant vigilance, and cohesive accountability. In many ways, it means studying what has happened and understanding why it happened. But, consider the following. It is believe that humans entered "behavioral modernity" with complex technology and cultures around 50,000 years ago. Yet, widespread access to information in multiple languages via the internet only emerged in the last 40 years. If all of "complex" humanity existed for one hour, the widespread sharing of information would only exist in the last 3 seconds of that hour. Suppose one extends information sharing to include the publication of pamphlets (around 1560 in Europe). In that case, we've only been able to share information relatively cheaply for the last 34 seconds. If we've only been recording and sharing information for the last few minutes of our 1-hour existence, how confident can we be in our study of what has happened and why it has happened? A pragmatic conclusion is to factor this into what we know and do the best with what we have. But certainly, this influx of information creates dynamics that have never been seen since the dawn of our "behavioral modernity." The system has changed and prior data points are not easily compared to our current situation. What likely has yet to change is our capacity for darkness. This can serve as a foundation or boundary. As a foundation, it establishes how the model of humanity might react to various stimuli. As a boundary, it represents a moral line that should not be crossed. But making predictions is incredibly challenging under the current conditions. The data appears to be a lot, but it is actually very little. The system seems omnipresent but is very new. Our recency bias anchors us to see blimps as exponential growth or destruction. All of this is either alarming or comforting. Neither should be the takeaway. Instead, one should always attempt to see things for what they are and remain vigilant of the darkness. While it might be impossible to not make predictions, other essential things are more directly tied to truth and the human condition. #### Related Items [[Time]] [[The Human Condition]] [[Progress]] [[Predictive Analytics]] [[Behavior]] [[History]] [[Reflection]] [[Truth]] [[Cognitive Biases]] [[Information]]