# Being Bad at Statistics By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2023-02-19 Our brains are horrible at estimating formal probabilities. Negative outcomes weigh six times heavier on us than positive ones. We buy lottery tickets when it's more likely to be struck by lightning. Many people avoid statistics classes because it is hard to grasp these ideas. Yet, our brains are also very good at dealing with uncertainty and making calls with limited information. We do this all of the time without even realizing it. We avoid the dark because we can't see in the dark. Baseball players decide to swing at a baseball pitch before they can even think about it. Most people work together in groups to maximize the chances of collective success. These innate human behaviors could be said to be the result of highly sophisticated probability calculations. Saying that humans are bad at probability and statistics is a complete mischaracterization of the situation. We are bad at the conscious formalization of the paradigm, but we are masters in its application. Once we became aware of the meta idea of probability and statistics, we quickly got lost in the imaginary world of thoughts and made-up paradoxes. While it is interesting to see how humans fail certain probability tests, we continue to compute probabilities at a rate so fast that it evades our consciousness. Dealing with this dynamic is part of human development and does result in even more sophisticated artifacts and tools. However, it also creates a blind spot in our public consciousness that simultaneously downplays the marvel of human reality and enables excuses for our failures and shortcomings. Excuses and illusions are hardly the paths to developing as a species. Perhaps we should stop believing the popular narrative that we are bad at mathematics when we are actually quite good at it by definition, or else the idea wouldn't even exist. #### Related Items [[Statistics]] [[Thinking]] [[Probability]] [[Progress]] [[Society]] [[The Human Condition]] [[Reality]]