# Anxiety Fueled Forecasts By:: [[Brian Heath]] 2023-08-10 Forecasts are not going to save a failing organization. First, if the organization is going to fail, it will fail. Here the forecast is just a timer counting down to zero. Knowing how much is on the clock is informative, but it does nothing to change the system. Second, creating the forecast may help one learn how the system works, but something else is needed to change the ship's direction. One may identify the key variables that influence success or failure via forecasting, but changing these variables is often arduous or impossible. The river flows as the river flows. One may attempt to dam the river, but only with considerable cost. The reality is that most people focus on the forecast for the wrong reasons. Instead of focusing on what to do now, they worry endlessly about where they are going. There is a delicate balance between the here and now and thinking ahead. Organizations and managers obsessed with forecasts reveal their anxiety, lack of balance and well-being, and existential crisis. Furthermore, an obsession with forecasts is often fueled by selfish motives under the guise of doing what suits the organization. After all, who within the organization knows the details of the forecast? Senior leaders and the few analysts who helped them derive it that are sworn to secrecy. If everyone were in this together, it would be valuable for the organization to know where the boat is going so everyone can row together. Organizations are not set up for collective action in the face individual ambitions, so the first ones to abandon the ship are often the captains. Finally, there is a reason why investing in the S & P 500 is generally more effective than trying to time market fluctuations: time horizons matter. While tomorrow's activities are predictably like yesterday, the outcomes months or years from now could vary wildly. However, a certain kind of stability re-emerges as one extends the time horizon to decades. Analytical forecasts are great at the near and distant but suck in the middle where chaos reigns. With certainty, I can say that the sun will rise tomorrow, and I will eventually be dead. All the bits in the middle are where anxiety and stress reside if one lives an unexamined life. Forecasting is not about the system but about you and your mental state. #### Related Items [[Forecasting]] [[Analytics]] [[Organization]] [[Psychology]] [[Mental Health]] [[Management]] [[Progress]]