# An Escalating Stalemate By:: [[Ross Jackson]] 2022-08-24 There is a human tendency to want to make things turn out for the good. In [[psychology]], this phenomenon is known as _commitment bias_. In [[Economics|economics]], it is described as _throwing good [[money]] after bad_. When one is on a selected course of action it can be challenging to keep the original goal in perspective or imagine viable alternatives. Such myopically irrational commitments can produce outcomes of extreme consequence on both a collective and individual scale.  Organizationally, one can observe this phenomenon through an [[examination]] of Vietnam. According to [[The Pentagon Papers]], in January of 1966, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs John T. McNaughton described that within Vietnam the United States had become caught in “an escalating military stalemate,” and advocated for a course of disengagement. This phrase captures that for each expansion of the bomb target list or increase in US troop levels, the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong were able to devise alternative logistics support strategies and enlarge their forces. Ratcheting up the level of US commitment resulted in no strategic or even tactical advancement. Rather, the approach resulted in the same inconclusive results at a higher level of US investment. Had President Johnson ended the war at the end of 1966, as suggested by the [[intelligence]] community and some in the Pentagon, the US would have avoided about 85% of the US casualties lost in that war from 1956-1973. One can observe an escalating stalemate at an individual level through an examination of career advancement strategies as one progresses from technician to manager. In [[Management in Quandary - A Critique of Organizational Power|Management in Quandary: A Critique of Organizational Power]], it is stated that “one can never escape the vestiges of organizational [[power]] by becoming a manager since one is even more beholding to any part of its functioning…Through an attempted escape from the drudgery of [[work]], one discovers the banality of management.” If one attempts to improve one’s existential situation through organizational advancement, one might find an escalating stalemate. Analysts benefit from an awareness of this phenomenon both in their assessment of organizational commitment and [[assessments]] of outcomes and in terms of their careers. Often there is [[value]] in the consistency of [[purpose]] and staying focused on the desired result. However, if one continues to make increasing investments and the results have stagnated, there is value in being able to reassess the situation with more accurate [[data]] than one had at the beginning and determine if a new path forward is needed. #### Related Items [[Commitment Bias]] [[Management]] [[Analytics]] [[Career Advancement]] [[Existential]]